The golden year of Tod's

Tod's shines in 2021. And this is demonstrated by the performance of the stock at Piazza Affari, which has posted an increase of more than 80% since the beginning of the year. For about six months, the shares of the group headed by Diego Della Valle have been moving around 50 euros per share and the market capitalization is now 1.66 billion. The highest peak since November 2018 was reached last June 18, when the shares almost touched 64 euros. Undoubtedly, the growth margins are still wide and it is not certain that the company will return to the glories of 2013, when it traveled on the list at 140 euros per share. The hypothesis, although arduous, does not appear so remote. Industry experts are optimistic about the revenue outlook and have recently revised their estimates of business development upwards.

«Revenue recovery and the sustainability of recent trends (particularly in retail), the strength of Greater China and growth in digital, as well as the medium-term margin outlook, have been key points for investors», BofA-Bank of America analysts specified. In the first nine months of the current fiscal year, sales at Tod's, which owns the eponymous brand besides Hogan, Roger Vivier and Fay, grew 37.6% to 622.6 million euros. Revenue for the third quarter alone was 224.3 million euros, up 14.6% from the same period in 2020 and higher than even 2019. And both Tod's management and analysts are also positive about the fourth quarter. «It will be better than the third», BofA experts pointed out, adding, «We believe that the current company consensus on revenues for this year, at 839 million euros, remains too low».

The United States remains the key to the company's international growth. «We estimate that the area will be worth 11% of Tod's sales by 2025», the analysts point out. However, the average consensus for the company on a panel of 16 analysts is outperform. The stock market rally of Tod's started when the entry of Chiara Ferragni in the board of the company was announced on April 9. To further give wings to the stock was then the capital increase in the group by Lvmh, which went from 3.2% to a 10% stake. The operation immediately triggered market speculation about a probable sale of the company to Bernard Arnault's giant. And just a month after the news broke, it was Della Valle himself who declared, «If one day I decide to sell, 100% trust in Arnault». «Tod's management», BofA's experts finally concluded, «expects the operating margin to return to double-digit levels within the next three to four years. This is an ambitious objective, despite which we slightly increase our profit estimates for the following years». (rights reserved)